The Pull Ledger
Nobody publishes Japanese pull rates. So we are measuring them, one opened box at a time.
The record starts with one box
Open a box, write down the hits, and every reader after you sees a number that exists nowhere else on the internet.
Every set with boxes in the ledger
Nobody has logged a box yet. Log the first one →
How to read it
The Pokémon Company has never published a pull rate for Japanese product. Not one. Every odds table on every site, including the one our own Box EV runs on, traces back to a handful of people who counted their boxes years ago and everyone who copied them since. Nobody re-measures, and nobody says how sure they are.
Here the published figure is the starting point, weighted as though it were worth 4 logged boxes, and every real box moves the answer toward what was in it.
- Published rate0 boxes
- Nobody has logged enough boxes of this set yet. This is the community rate every site quotes, including us.
- Early data3 boxes
- A handful of boxes logged. Enough to spot a set that runs hot or cold, not enough to bet on.
- Measured20 boxes
- Enough boxes for the rate to hold still. The interval is what the sample supports.
- Well measured100 boxes
- Hundreds of boxes. This is the closest thing to a real pull rate that exists for Japanese product.
The maths is the plain conjugate one for counting events per box: a box holds a whole number of SARs, so the model is Poisson with a Gamma prior rather than a coin flip. Nothing here is smoothed, weighted by who logged it, or adjusted after the fact. Delete your own log and the published rate moves back.